My team pulled the raw CDC NHANES data and built analyses tracing the full 1976 to 2023 blood lead decline. Weighted national estimates, toddler deep dives, prenatal exposure costs, and the age-1 vs age-2 finding that researchers keep getting wrong. All free to download.
FluoroSpec · negative reaction (no lead) vs. positive glow on lead pigment
Every NHANES wave in one chart. The 93% decline after leaded gas was phased out (1973) and fully banned (1996). Racial disparities, age breakdown, where we stand vs. the 3.5 ug/dL CDC reference.
Download PDF CC BY 4.0, share freely with credit to DetectLead.comSampling-weight-adjusted national estimates. ~143M Americans above 10 ug/dL. Four Census regions. Dose-response for EP, hemoglobin, cholesterol, and zinc tested simultaneously with blood lead.
Download PDF CC BY 4.0, share freely with credit to DetectLead.comDedicated analysis for the highest-exposure group. Age-1 mean 18.4 ug/dL. Per-age histograms, percentile box plots, race x age heatmap, 1-3 group vs 4-6 group. Full 2,565 individual records.
Download PDF CC BY 4.0, share freely with credit to DetectLead.comComplete children's analysis plus every one of the 4,206 children with blood draws, color-coded by lead level. Age groups, racial disparities, sex breakdown, year trend.
Download PDF CC BY 4.0, share freely with credit to DetectLead.comNHANES shows age-1 GM BLL at or above age-2 across all 8 survey rounds from 1976 to 2023. Compares NYC/UK screening data against the national sample, explains why both are real. Includes Rochester cohort from Canfield NEJM 2003.
Download PDF CC BY 4.0, share freely with credit to DetectLead.comIQ-loss and lifetime economic cost of prenatal lead exposure. Canfield NEJM 2003 dose-response, $20 kit screening cost curve vs. cost of one poisoned child, and the HUD Lead Hazard Reduction pipeline opportunity.
Download PDF CC BY 4.0, share freely with credit to DetectLead.comIn NHANES, one-year-olds consistently have higher geometric mean blood lead than two-year-olds. Across all 8 survey rounds from 1976 to 2023, age-1 GM BLL is at or above age-2. This is the opposite of what NYC and UK screening programs show.
The difference is sample design. NHANES is a national probability sample. It captures ambient and prenatal lead exposure that front-loads BLL in the first year of life, before the hand-to-mouth peak at 24 months. NYC/UK screening programs draw from paint-heavy urban contexts where the 24-month hand-to-mouth pattern dominates.
Both are real. Which one you see depends entirely on who you're measuring. The age matrix PDF above maps out all 8 NHANES rounds, the Rochester cohort from Canfield NEJM 2003, and the NYC/UK screening literature side by side.
The prenatal exposure window is the policy implication. If ambient and in-utero routes front-load BLL before a child turns one, screening at housing turnover or move-in, before exposure occurs, is the lever that actually moves outcomes.
Before a HUD grantee can abate a home, they need a Lead Inspection and Risk Assessment (LIRA) — a certified examiner, XRF scan, dust wipe sampling, written report. That runs $850 to $2,050 per unit. Abatement itself averages $10,000 to $15,000. FluoroSpec at $20 a kit is the pre-screen that happens before any of that — it flags whether a unit is worth ordering a LIRA at all.
The amber band is LIRA. Every point on the FluoroSpec curve is below it. At 7% detection, single-use screening costs $286 per confirmed case. With reuse: $29.
Two approaches from the 2025 National Lead and Healthy Housing Conference
Targeted data approach: Neal Wilson and Matthew Robinson (Center for Economic Information, UMKC) presented a housing-based Lead Risk Index (LRI) that scores properties for lead hazard likelihood using exterior data only, no home entry required. The goal is to help programs prioritize which units to inspect first. Presented at the 2025 National Lead and Healthy Housing Conference, Kansas City.
Incentivized community sampling: Dr. Heidi Beidinger (Notre Dame Lead Innovation Team) presented the Indiana WIC pilot, where ND LIT partnered with Women, Infants and Children clinics to get families to screen their own homes using low-cost kits. Their 2024 study tested incentive structures including gift cards to drive kit returns. Same conference.
Both are real contributions. The LRI approach is genuinely useful when the per-screen cost is high enough to justify the model overhead. At $20 per kit or $2 with reuse, that calculus shifts. The cost differential between screening and not screening is so large that a wide-scatter approach, screen at every unit turnover, every HUD property, every move-in, produces positive expected value even at low detection rates. Optimization helps. At this price point, it is not required.
Academic researchers, journalists, and public-health advocates can apply for a free FluoroSpec lead-detection kit. We set aside 100 units for this program.
Fill out the short researcher request on the next page and we will ship it to you directly.
Claim Your Kit →a companion product-side dataset. NHANES tells you what's in americans' blood; this database tells you what's in the products that put it there.
