Two waves. One graph.
Estimated US deaths attributable to childhood leaded-gasoline exposure, 1970-2050.
Population-attributable fractions applied to CDC/Alzheimer's Association national mortality data.
CVD = heart attack + stroke. Dementia = Alzheimer's + vascular dementia. Post-2026 = projection.
1970
1975
CVD peak: ~185,000 lead-attributable deaths per year
2033
Crossover: dementia surpasses CVD at ~95,000 each
2026
We are here. Dementia is 8 years from overtaking CVD.